HOT DOCUMENT: The Hot Air Of Inevitability

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TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Mark J. Penn, Chief Strategist, Hillary ’08

DATE: June 9th, 2007

RE: After 6 Months

In the latest Newsweek poll, which fielded after the 2nd quarter fundraising numbers were released, Hillary’s lead in the Democratic primary nearly doubled from 12 points in May to 23 points now. Hillary’s favorability has risen to 57% among all Americans, and they say overwhelmingly she has the experience to be a good president (70%). Nearly two-thirds say there is a good chance or some chance they will vote for her (62%).
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In the general election, Hillary leads top Republican Rudy Giuliani by seven points (51 percent to 44 percent) in the last Newsweek poll, up from just three points a month ago. The next closest Democrat leads Giuliani by only five points (49 percent to 44 percent), down from seven points in May. In fact, Hillary leads Giuliani in all the latest national polls ? CNN, Fox, Gallup, Newsweek, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac and Cook/RT Strategies. And Hillary is tied or ahead of Giuliani in key battleground states which Democrats lost in both 2000 and 2004, including Florida, Ohio and West Virginia.
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As observers like Charlie Cook have pointed out, Hillary has the coalition of support (women, strong Democrats, lower, middle-income and working families, Hispanics and African-Americans) that has traditionally won Democratic primaries. The profile of voters supporting other contenders, according to Cook, resembles the “support profiles of Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992 and Bill Bradley in 2000. The numbers are splashy and significant but not sufficiently broad-based to capture a nomination.” [FULL TEXT HERE]

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